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Mesoscale Discussion 1708
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022

Areas affected...Portions of eastern NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 211950Z - 212145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for strong/gusty winds should continue
as thunderstorms move eastward this afternoon. Watch issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows a remnant MCV
moving eastward across north-central NC. A band of convection has
recently developed on the eastern flank of this MCV. The airmass
downstream across eastern NC has beco*e moderately unstable per
latest mesoanalysis estimates, with around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
present. Even though low/mid-level flow remains rather weak over
this region, there appears to be enough organization to the ongoing
line to support an isolated threat for locally strong/gusty outflow
winds capable of producing occasional tree damage. This wind threat
may be somewhat greater across a small part of northeastern/coastal
NC over the next couple of hours, as robust diurnal heating and
cloud breaks have allowed low-level lapse rates to steepen as
temperatures reach into the mid to upper 80s. Regardless, the lack
of notable deep-layer shear is forecast to limit overall
thunderstorm intensity and severe potential, and watch issuance is
not expected this afternoon.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 08/21/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   34577799 35357766 35857760 36427768 36517585 35787572
            34937635 34727702 34527775 34577799