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Mesoscale Discussion 1707
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022

Areas affected...Portions of mid/upper Ohio Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 211658Z - 211830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storm coverage and intensity will increase gradually this
afternoon. Isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail (in
the strongest storms) are the primary hazards. Convective trends
will be monitored, but a watch is not currently anticipated this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Cloud breaks within the region have allowed a few
thunderstorms to develop ahead of the cold front within a weakly
capped environment. The front itself remains farther to the west
near the IN/OH border. Continued heating within broken cloud cover
will continue to promote greater boundary layer destabilization
where around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE may continue to build northeastward
into parts of eastern Ohio. Additional storms are likely to develop
this afternoon given the upper-level support from the shortwave
trough. Effective shear is modest 25-30 kts and will support
multicell storms with perhaps isolated, marginal supercells storms.
These storms will primarily pose a threat for damaging wind gusts,
though the strongest storms could produce marginally severe hail
given cold temperatures aloft. Some guidance shows other development
occurring along the cold front later in the afternoon. The intensity
of this activity is more uncertain as it will be impacted by
convection that is occurring currently.

The coverage of severe-caliber storms is the greatest source of
uncertainty. Whether or not a watch is necessary will depend on
convective trends regarding storm coverage and intensity this
afternoon. At present, a watch is not anticipated.

..Wendt/Kerr.. 08/21/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   38548495 40278388 40818276 40848116 40498072 39588064
            38308213 38098274 37908441 38118502 38548495