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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The organized severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be low on
Monday.

...Mid Atlantic/Southern New England into the Carolinas...
Convection is expected across a broad region of the eastern CONUS on
Monday, within a moist and generally uncapped environment east of a
weakening mid/upper-level trough. 20-30 kt midlevel southwesterly
flow may sporadically support some modest storm organization, but
weak midlevel lapse rates and potentially widespread cloudiness
should limit buoyancy and updraft intensity. A threat for locally
damaging wind gusts may eventually evolve in areas where stronger
heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates can occur between
rounds of convection. 

...Northern Plains...
While low-level moisture will remain relatively limited, diurnal
heating will support weak to locally moderate destabilization across
parts of the northern Great Plains Monday afternoon. Development and
coverage of surface-based storms remain uncertain, and could be tied
to convectively enhanced vorticity maxima emanating out of the
northern Rockies. If surface-based storms develop, modest deep-layer
shear within the weak northwesterly flow regime could support a
couple stronger cells or clusters, though the severity of any such
development remains uncertain and could be relatively limited. 

...TX into LA/southern MS...
Widespread convection is expected on Monday across much of TX into
the ArkLaMiss region, as a low-amplitude mid/upper-level trough
slowly traverses a very moist environment. The organized severe
threat appears limited within this regime, due to weak midlevel
lapse rates and deep-layer shear, with heavy rain expected to be the
primary concern. However, isolated wet microbursts and/or
outflow-driven clusters may produce localized gusty winds,
especially from central TX into parts of the Rio Grande Valley,
where somewhat stronger heating/destabilization may occur prior to
storm arrival.

..Dean.. 08/21/2022