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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Several shortwave troughs are forecast to exist within the
relatively weak mid/upper flow across the CONUS early Monday
morning. The southernmost shortwave trough is expected to move
gradually southeastward from east TX into the Lower MS Valley,
acco*panied by a weak surface low. Moist and buoyant air mass in
place ahead of this system will foster numerous thunderstorms, but
weak vertical shear and poor mid-level lapse rates should limit the
severe thunderstorm potential.

Farther east, a slow-moving shortwave trough is expected to move
from the upper OH Valley into the Northeast. Thunderstorms are
anticipated during the afternoon and evening as this shortwave and
its attendant surface low/cold front move into the Mid-Atlantic and
NY. Limited buoyancy and vertical shear should temper the overall
severe thunderstorms risk.

Westernmost shortwave trough will likely move northeastward through
the Pacific Northwest before developing into a closed low late
Monday/early Tuesday over southern British Columbia. Thunderstorms
are anticipated ahead of this shortwave over the northern Rockies,
but modest buoyancy should keep the severe potential low.

..Mosier.. 08/21/2022