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Mesoscale Discussion 1702
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

Areas affected...Eastern IN into western OH

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 201725Z - 201930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and possibly
some hail will increase this afternoon. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...A storm cluster over northeast IN has shown some
intensification early this afternoon, and this trend may continue as
storms move into a destabilizing environment across western OH,
where diurnal heating of a moist environment is supporting MLCAPE of
1500-2000 J/kg. Modest southwesterly midlevel flow along the eastern
flank of the deep-layer cyclone across eastern IA is supporting
20-30 kt of effective shear, which will support the potential for
semi-organized multicell clusters through the afternoon. 

Locally damaging wind gusts will likely be the primary threat,
especially as low-level lapse rates steepen downstream this
afternoon. Weak midlevel lapse rates and only modest deep-layer
shear should temper the hail threat to some extent, though with
seasonably cool temperatures aloft, some isolated hail will also be
possible. Watch issuance is possible this afternoon in response to
these threats, depending on observational trends with the developing
storm cluster and downstream destabilization.

..Dean/Bunting.. 08/20/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   40418517 41308487 41668381 41488282 40908269 39828340
            39458401 39778486 39978503 40418517