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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected mainly this afternoon and
evening across parts of the Ozarks and Midwest, including portions
of Missouri and Illinois to Indiana and Ohio.

...Midwest/Ozarks...
An upper low centered over Iowa/southeast Minnesota/southwest
Wisconsin this morning will continue to spread southeastward today
while it tends to open/weaken. A moist air mass precedes this system
within the warm sector to the east of a surface low/cold front that
will advance east-southeastward across eastern Iowa, Missouri, and
Illinois through evening. The moist boundary layer and modestly cool
mid-level temperatures (-10C at 500 mb) will lead to minimal
convective inhibition by midday/early afternoon, particularly where
the more appreciable cloud breaks occur outside of lingering early
day convection. 

Scattered thunderstorm development/intensification can be expected
into this afternoon, although the existing early day cloud
cover/convection cast some uncertainty on the exact degree of
destabilization, as well as the preferred corridors of somewhat
higher severe potential later today. Regardless, isolated bouts of
damaging winds and some severe hail are possible, especially where
somewhat stronger vertical shear (30-40 kt effective) resides across
central Illinois/east-central Missouri to southern Indiana/southern
Ohio and northern Kentucky. Sustained multicells are more probable
across this corridor along with the possibility of a few
weak/transient supercells. 

Pending daytime trends related to ongoing convection/cloud cover and
subsequent destabilization, areas such as central Illinois and/or
parts of Ohio/eastern Indiana could be candidates in subsequent
outlooks for a categorical Slight Risk upgrade.

...South Texas...
A low over the western Gulf of Mexico is expected to move
northwestward toward Deep South Texas and could potentially beco*e a
tropical cyclone. Reference the National Hurricane Center for
additional forecast details regarding Potential Tropical Cyclone
Four. While a modest strengthening of southeasterly low-level winds
may occur, present indications are that the low/mid-level flow field
will likely remain sufficiently weak to preclude a tornado risk.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 08/20/2022