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Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST...AND SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS...

CORRECTED TO ADD MENTION OF POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR SOUTH
TEXAS LATE

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong thunderstorms -- a few beco*ing severe locally --
are expected Saturday from the Ozarks vicinity east-northeastward
across the Midwest.

...Synopsis...
An upper low/trough is forecast to drift slowly across the Midwest
Saturday, while a short-wave trough shifts east-northeastward out of
northern Mexico, across New Mexico, and eventually into the southern
Plains.  Otherwise, ridging will prevail across the remainder of the
West, and along the Atlantic Seaboard and western Atlantic.

At the surface, a very weak/diffuse pattern will prevail.  A
tropical low now over the Bay of Campeche may move into the South
Texas vicinity late in the period.

...Ozarks vicinity into/across the Midwest...
As a short-wave trough moves into/across the Midwest, diurnal
heating of a moist low-level airmass will result in afternoon
destabilization, supporting development of scattered thunderstorms
across the Midwest/Ohio Valley, and trailing west-southwestward
across the Ozarks.  

With a belt of slightly enhanced cyclonic/west-southwesterly flow
preceding the upper low/trough, modestly enhanced shear across the
area suggests that isolated strong storms may occasionally reach
severe levels, with locally strong wind gusts and some hail
possible.  The risk will peak diurnally, diminishing gradually into
the evening with the loss of daytime heating.

...South Texas...
A tropical low over the Bay of Campeche is forecast to the National
Hurricane Center to move north-northwestward and evolve into a
tropical storm, before making landfall south of Brownsville TX
during the evening.  Uncertainty precludes inclusion of any tornado
probabilities at this time, but may require addition in later
outlooks as the evolution of the storm beco*es more clear.

..Goss/Marsh.. 08/20/2022