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Mesoscale Discussion 1698
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

Areas affected...Iowa into northern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 191931Z - 192130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity is
expected this afternoon, with a threat of isolated to widely
scattered hail and locally strong wind gusts. Watch issuance is
possible.

DISCUSSION...c*nvection has been gradually increasing this afternoon
across parts of western and northern IA into far eastern NE. While
convection that has persisted from late this morning has been
largely elevated in nature, decreasing MLCINH and deepening cumulus
noted across much of central/western IA suggest that surface-based
storm development will increase this afternoon, as recently noted
near Des Moines. While the strongest deep-layer shear is expected
west of the region across parts of NE/KS, effective shear of 25-35
kt and moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500+ J/kg) will support a
threat of organized multicells and perhaps a supercell or two later
this afternoon into early evening. Large hail will likely be the
primary threat with any primarily discrete storms, though isolated
strong/damaging wind gusts will also be possible, especially if any
larger storm clusters evolve with time.  

Given the only marginally favorable wind profiles and generally
unfocused nature of the threat, the need for watch issuance is
uncertain at this time, but will be considered based on
observational trends through the afternoon.

..Dean/Grams.. 08/19/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON   41909517 42079463 42219341 42189248 41929174 41659141
            41129125 40659135 40389172 40359234 40389277 40339345
            40389427 40459474 40649501 41409543 41569538 41909517