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Mesoscale Discussion 1697
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

Areas affected...Portions of central and western Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 191910Z - 192115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms may produce strong/damaging winds and
large hail this afternoon. A watch is not expected this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Mid-level convection across southern into eastern
Kansas continues to weaken this afternoon. Pockets of cooler
temperatures remain in east-central and southern Kansas. A fairly
well-defined outflow boundary from the eastern mid-level convection
is evident on visible satellite in central Kansas, though strong
heating has already modified this air. Portions of western and
central Kansas--roughly from Garden City to east of Russell--have
remained cloud-free and heated into the upper 80s and low 90s F.
Objective mesoanalysis indicates around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE has
developed ahead of the cold front in northern Kansas. Cumulus clouds
have quickly started to deepen southwest of Hill City and will
likely be the area of thunderstorm development this afternoon. On
the southern flank of the Upper Midwest upper low, some stronger
westerly flow exists and has contributed to 35-40 kts of shear. At
least some co*ponent of the shear vector is orthogonal to the front.
Within the narrow environment between the front, outflow, and cloud
cover, low-level lapse rates are steep enough to support
strong/damaging wind gusts. Modestly steep mid-level lapse rates,
strong anvil-level flow, and potential for discrete storms also
suggests a threat for large hail. While storm development is most
probable along the front, additional storms are possible along the
outflow boundary should it slow/stall later this afternoon. Given
the limited spatial extent and marginal moisture/buoyancy, a watch
is not expected.

..Wendt/Grams.. 08/19/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...to*...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38800085 39170037 39679896 39649816 39439769 38719747
            38059815 37809927 37779981 37850027 38020048 38800085