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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
IA...NORTHERN MO...AND FAR NORTHWEST IL...

...SUMMARY...
The most favorable area for isolated to perhaps scattered severe
hail and wind is across parts of southern/eastern Iowa, northern
Missouri, and far northwest Illinois from late afternoon through
mid-evening.

...IA/MO/IL vicinity...
To the south and southeast of a vertically stacked low over
southwest MN, pockets of greater boundary-layer heating are evident
across parts of IA into MO and IL. Amid cool mid-level temperatures
around -12 C at 500 mb, moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-2000
J/kg should beco*e co*mon by late afternoon. A scattering of
thunderstorms is expected during this time frame into the evening,
focused along the primary surface cold front and confluence bands
ahead of it. While stronger deep-layer shear will be found in the
southwest quadrant of the broader cyclone, a swath of moderate
mid-level westerlies should extend east towards the IA/MO/IL border
area yielding effective bulk shear of 25-35 kts. This area should be
most favored for a few lower-end supercells and small multicell
clusters mainly producing isolated severe hail and damaging wind
until convection wanes later this evening.

...KS...
In the wake of ongoing elevated convection, a corridor of
destabilization is expected near and behind the surface cold front
drifting south from southern NE/northwest KS. Buoyancy will remain
limited and mid-level lapse rates were relatively modest in upstream
12Z soundings from North Platte and Rapid City. Nevertheless, the
presence of 30-40 kt mid-level west-northwesterlies to the southwest
of the vertically stacked low in southern MN will support a threat
for a few cells producing isolated severe hail and wind during the
late afternoon to early evening.

...Eastern GA/coastal Carolinas...
Generally stratiform rain with isolated deeper convection has been
slowly drifting east over southern NC and far eastern SC. This has
convectively reinforced a weak baroclinic zone across the region
with a 1017-mb mesolow over eastern SC. This minor cyclone should
drift north towards central NC through tonight. A rather localized
corridor of enhanced low-level SRH near the track of this low
conditionally supports a threat for a brief tornado. Otherwise,
locally damaging winds will be possible with scattered multicell
clusters that emanate out of GA later this afternoon.

...Central/western AZ...
A few strong storms with locally gusty winds may materialize during
the late afternoon and early evening across the region within a very
moist air mass. Potential for organized severe storms appears
limited owing to weak deep-layer shear/mid-level lapse rates.

..Grams/Wendt.. 08/19/2022