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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OZARKS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MIDWEST/OHIO
VALLEY...AND GREAT LAKES......

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across
parts of the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley, Midwest/Ohio
Valley, and Great Lakes. Occasional damaging winds and marginally
severe hail should be the main threats.

...Ozarks...Mid-MS and OH Valleys...Great Lakes...

An upper low/trough will migrate east across the Midwest/Great Lakes
vicinity on Saturday. Deep-layer west/southwesterly flow associated
with this system will remain moderate, with around 25-40 kt midlevel
flow forecast. At the surface, a weak low over eastern IA Saturday
morning will drift east/southeast across northern IL. Meanwhile, a
cold front will develop east/southeast across IL/MO/KS/OK. A
seasonally moist boundary-layer will exist ahead of the surface
low/cold front with dewpoints in the mid 60s likely. Midlevel lapse
rates are forecast to remain modest (around 6.5 C/km), but pockets
of stronger heating of the moist boundary-layer will contribute to
MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. Effective shear magnitudes to
around 35 kt will result in at least transient supercells and
briefly organized clusters. 

Some consideration was given to an upgrade to a Slight risk across
parts of MO/IL. However, uncertainty due to possible morning
convection and cloud cover, along with decreasing large-scale ascent
with southward extent will preclude an upgrade at this time.
Isolated strong to severe gusts and hail will be the main concern
with this activity as bands and clusters of storms shift east
through the evening.

..Leitman.. 08/19/2022