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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from the
central Plains into the Upper Midwest, with hail and a few damaging
wind gusts possible. A few severe storms may also occur across parts
of the Southeast including the coastal Carolinas.

...Iowa/northern Missouri and far western Illinois...
On the southern periphery of a vertically stacked low, the air mass
will beco*e uncapped by early afternoon across the warm sector with
heating/insolation, and beneath cooling mid-level temperatures
(around -12C at 500 mb). Scattered to perhaps numerous storms are
expected to form through mid/late afternoon from Iowa into northern
Missouri, near both the front and low-level lapse-rate plume
emanating out of Nebraska. Effective shear of 35-40 kt and straight
hodographs will favor cells capable of large hail, but clusters of
storms may also produce damaging wind gusts as they move
southeastward.

...Kansas...
Northwest flow aloft will increase as a weak front drifts
south-southeastward across I-70. Strong heating will lead to a
deeply mixed boundary layer. While dewpoints may only remain in the
upper 50s F, MUCAPE should exceed 1000 J/kg given relatively cool
temperatures aloft. Elevated storms may develop relatively early as
cooling aloft spreads south. Effective shear near 35 kt and steep
lapse rates will favor cells capable of hail. A few severe gusts may
also occur as the activity progresses south-southeastward through
the afternoon and outflow accumulates.

...Eastern Georgia/coastal Carolinas...
Have introduced severe probabilities across the region to account
for the possibility of a few severe storms including some transient
supercells. This potential will focus along a roughly
west/east-oriented and slightly northward shifting boundary, where
modest-strength deep-layer/low-level winds will be maximized
coincident with modest destabilization and a moist environment.
Localized damaging winds may occur, and a brief tornado cannot be
ruled out.

...Lower Colorado River Valley/southern Arizona...
A few strong storms with gusty winds may materialize mainly this
afternoon/early evening across the region within a moist/unstable
environment. However, current thinking is that organized/sustained
severe-weather potential will remain low.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 08/19/2022