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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Sunday
across parts of the Ohio Valley into the western Mid-Atlantic.

...Ohio Valley into the Western Mid-Atlantic...
An upper trough, with modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterly
winds on its eastern flank, should continue to advance slowly
eastward from the OH Valley/Great Lakes across the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast on Sunday. A broad area of weak low pressure should
likewise develop from the OH Valley towards the Lower Great Lakes
through Sunday evening. A moist low-level airmass should be in place
ahead of a cold front across these regions. Some filtered diurnal
heating of the warm sector should occur, and weak to locally
moderate instability may develop through Sunday afternoon across
portions of the OH Valley into the western Mid-Atlantic, generally
along/west of the spine of the Appalachians.

The fairly modest mid-level winds associated with the upper trough
should foster only marginally supportive deep-layer shear for
organized convection. Still, various NAM forecast soundings across
these regions ahead of the front suggest some threat for loosely
organized thunderstorms capable of producing mainly isolated
damaging winds. Current expectations are for convection to gradually
strengthen and increase in coverage Sunday afternoon as it spreads
eastward. Even with the somewhat limited shear forecast, have
included a Marginal Risk where the greatest concentration of
thunderstorms should overlap moderate instability and somewhat
steepened low-level lapse rates.

...Southeast...
Much of the Southeast will be on the southern fringe of the upper
trough, with very limited deep-layer shear forecast. While isolated
strong to damaging winds cannot be ruled out across this region,
there is currently not enough confidence in organized severe
thunderstorms to include low severe probabilities.

..Gleason.. 08/19/2022