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Mesoscale Discussion 1694
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022

Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 182034Z - 182230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A supercell storm or two will be possible along a cold
front in central/eastern Nebraska. Strong to severe wind gusts and
large hail will be possible on an isolated basis. A watch is
possible this afternoon pending convective trends.

DISCUSSION...Cumulus continue to deepen along a cold front in
central/northeast Nebraska. Modifying the observed 12Z OAX sounding
for current surface observations suggests that MLCIN is minimal,
which is also supported by objective mesoanalysis. Over the next
couple of hours, a storm or two may initiate and move southeastward.
Stronger northwesterly flow aloft is roughly orthogonal to the
boundary. Storms that can initiate would likely be discrete and
supercellular. Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible.
Steep mid-level lapse rates as well as strong anvil-level winds will
also favor large hail potential. Though limited moisture/buoyancy
will keep potential quite low, nonzero potential for a 2 inch
hailstone exists. Given the displacement of stronger mid-level
ascent to the north, storm coverage will likely be quite isolated.
Trends will continue to be monitored for a possible watch later this
afternoon.

..Wendt/Grams.. 08/18/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   40569969 41519890 42539761 42739703 42439648 42139646
            41179745 40359857 40239911 40299940 40569969