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Mesoscale Discussion 1693
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022

Areas affected...southwest MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 181944Z - 182145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of strong thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon.  Marginally severe hail and localized gusts 50-60 mph are
possible with the most intense storms.

DISCUSSION...Radar/satellite imagery shows a few thunderstorms
developing over southwest MN where a weak area of low pressure is
currently analyzed within a larger-scale trough.  A surface cool
front/trough is located over far eastern SD and will continue to
move east into southwest MN later this evening.  Surface conditions
are warm with temperatures rising into the lower 80s with low-mid
60s dewpoints.  As a result, moderate buoyancy 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE
is present according to objective analysis/forecast soundings.

The primary limiting factor will be the relatively subdued wind
profile with only modest southwest-westerly flow (15-20 kt) in the
low through mid levels.  Expecting intermittent strong multicells to
eventually evolve this afternoon into the early evening.  An
isolated threat for marginally severe hail and/or strong to locally
severe gusts (50-60 mph) may result.

..Smith/Grams.. 08/18/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...

LAT...LON   44439652 44699578 44429474 43849454 43529522 44129679
            44439652