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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible Friday across parts of
the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Occasional hail and
damaging winds should be the main threats. Sporadic strong gusts
also may acco*pany thunderstorms across parts of Georgia and South
Carolina Friday afternoon.

...KS/MO/IA...

A mid/upper level low/trough will develop east/southeast across the
Upper Midwest on Friday. 25-40 kt mid/upper level northwesterly flow
will overspread portions of the northern/central Plains into the
lower MO Valley and Upper Midwest. At the surface, weak low pressure
will meander east/southeast across the southern MN/IA vicinity. A
cold front will extend southwest from the low and slowly shift east
across the central Plains to the lower MO Valley. Modest
boundary-layer moisture will be in place ahead of the front as
afternoon temperatures climb into the 80s. Midlevel lapse rates
around 7 C/km above the modest boundary-layer moisture will
contribute to moderate instability (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE).
Effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt will support some
organized multicell clusters and transient supercells. Isolated
strong to severe gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible
with the strongest cells during the afternoon and evening. 

...GA/SC...

Deep-layer flow will remain modest across the region, on the
southern periphery of the eastern U.S. upper trough. However, some
weak speed shear and 25-35 kt midlevel flow will result in marginal
effective shear magnitudes around 25 kt. This may support some
transient/briefly organized multicell clusters in the vicinity of a
weak surface low and stationary front draped across central GA into
SC. Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, but surface dewpoints in
the 70s will contribute to MLCAPE as high as 1500 J/kg. Low-level
flow will remain weak, generally less than 10-15 kt through 1 km.
However, steepening low-level lapse rates and PW values near 2
inches will support water-loaded downdrafts capable of sporadic
strong gusts and wind damage through the afternoon.

..Leitman.. 08/18/2022