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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1051 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL NE
TO THE MID-MO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail and localized severe wind gusts are most likely
from south-central Nebraska to the Mid-Missouri Valley during the
late afternoon and early evening.

...KS/NE to southwest MN...
A shortwave trough will gradually amplify as it drifts southeast
across the Upper Midwest through tonight. An initially weak surface
cyclone over the Upper Red River Valley will deepen as it slowly
moves east across northern MN. Trailing cold front to its southwest
will sharpen towards late afternoon across the Mid-MO Valley.
Boundary-layer moisture will be relatively modest by mid-August
standards, but a confined plume of steep mid-level lapse rates
sampled by the 12Z Aberdeen sounding should support a narrow
corridor of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. 

A belt of enhanced mid-level northwesterlies will overspread much of
the Great Plains to the west and southwest of the shortwave trough.
This will strengthen deep-layer shear, mainly across the central
Great Plains portion of the front, yielding elongation of the
hodograph atop weak low-level SRH. This should support potential for
a few discrete supercells with mid-level rotation centered on the
IA/NE/SD border area southwest into south-central NE. Isolated large
hail and localized severe gusts should be the primary hazards before
convection wanes rapidly after dusk. With northeast extent into MN,
slower-moving storms and more prominent multicell clustering should
serve to marginalize wind/hail intensities. 

...Central TX to southern LA and north FL to southeast GA...
While deep-layer shear will be lacking to the south of a
convectively reinforced surface front, very rich boundary-layer
moisture characterized by observed PW values around 2 inches will
support a threat for localized wet microbursts, peaking in the late
afternoon. Extensive pulse to weakly organized multicells are
anticipated before convection decays this evening.

..Grams/Wendt.. 08/18/2022