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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from
central/eastern Texas to the Southeast States, and over portions of
the central Plains. Damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard with
these storms.

...Central Plains...
An amplifying/southeastward-digging upper trough over the Upper
Midwest will increasingly influence the region into this afternoon
and tonight. A cyclonically curved belt of strengthening
northwesterly winds aloft will overspread the region. At the
surface, modest boundary-layer moisture will reside ahead of a
south/southeastward-advancing cold front. A lack of better quality
moisture will limit instability, but heating into the 80s F and
modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg by peak heating. 

Effective shear around 30-40 kt will support at least a transient
supercell threat, along with a few organized clusters during the
afternoon along/ahead of the front, with the strongest winds
aloft/deep-layer shear expected to be over south-central/eastern
Nebraska. Strong to severe wind gusts and isolated severe hail will
be possible with the strongest cells through early evening. Portions
of the region including south-central/eastern Nebraska will be
reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for a potential Slight Risk
upgrade.

...Central Texas to Gulf Coast/Southeast States...
Substantial boundary-layer moisture will remain ahead of the
east-west-oriented surface front, which will be augmented/reinforced
by areas of ongoing convection morning across the middle Gulf Coast.
Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F and areas of strong
heating will result in moderate to strong instability, with MLCAPE
values around 2000-3000 J/kg. PWAT values will be high at around 2
inches. Vertical shear will remain weak, with mostly
unidirectional/westerly deep-layer flow over the region. The
co*bination of strong instability and weak shear in the presence of
a surface boundary will mainly support initially intense updrafts
with limited organization. As a result, the main severe threat with
thunderstorm clusters through the afternoon will be limited to
damaging wind gusts in water-loaded downdrafts.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 08/18/2022