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Mesoscale Discussion 1690
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0517 PM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022

Areas affected...portions of far eastern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 172217Z - 172315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of marginal severe hailstones/gusts may occur
with the stronger storms over the next couple of hours. A WW
issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Multiple pulse cellular/multicellular storms have
recently intensified and have displayed transient supercell
characteristics over the last hour or so. MRMS has shown 1-1.5 inch
MESH with some of the stronger storms, which continue to move
south-southwestward amid a moist low-level airmass and modest
tropospheric lapse rates, contributing up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE.
Despite the marginal thermodynamic environment and weak tropospheric
winds, RAP forecast soundings show evidence of some low-level
veering and some speed shear around 500 mb, contributing to modestly
curved and elongated hodographs. As such, some of these storms may
maintain some organization/transient supercell status, with brief
bouts of mid-level rotation supporting marginally severe hail. Given
steeper low-level lapse rates, a damaging gust also cannot be ruled
out. However, KPMX radar data does indicate a westward propagation
of an outflow boundary, so the severe threat may also be brief. A WW
issuance is not expected given the overall brief, localized nature
of the severe threat.

..Squitieri/Edwards.. 08/17/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...

LAT...LON   47289427 47759425 47859414 47779365 47099289 46009264
            44899274 44609281 44599329 45149387 46419418 47289427