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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 PM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN TX INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Thursday over
parts of central/eastern Texas into the Southeast, and portions of
the central Plains. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with this
activity.

...Central Plains...

Moderate mid/upper level northwesterly flow will be in position
across the central/northern Plains on the western periphery of the
eastern US upper trough. A shortwave perturbation is forecast to
develop southward from the Canadian Prairies into the Plains during
the forecast period. At the surface, modest boundary-layer moisture
will reside ahead of a south/southeastward-advancing cold front. A
lack of better quality moisture will limit instability some, but
heating into the 80s and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will
support MLCAPE values around 500-1500 J/kg. Effective shear
magnitudes greater than 30 kt will support at least transient
supercells and organized clusters by afternoon along/ahead of the
front. Strong to severe gusts and marginally severe hail will be
possible with the strongest cells through early evening. 

...Central TX through the Southeast...

A reservoir of rich boundary-layer moisture will reside ahead of the
west to east oriented surface front. Surface dewpoints in the upper
60s to low 70s F and areas of strong heating will result in moderate
to strong instability, with MLCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg
likely. PW values also will be quite high, nearing 2 inches.
Vertical shear will remain weak, with mostly unidirectional/westerly
deep-layer flow over the region. This co*bination of strong
instability and weak shear in the presence of a surface boundary
will mainly support initially intense updrafts with limited
organization. As a result, the main severe threat with thunderstorm
clusters through the afternoon will be limited to damaging gusts in
water loaded downdrafts.

..Leitman.. 08/17/2022