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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING TOWARD THE OZARKS LATER TONIGHT....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail remain possible
from parts of Oklahoma into the Ozarks.

...OK into southern MO and northern AR...
A cold front is currently near I-40 in western OK, extending
slightly northeastward toward southeast KS/southwest MO. Dewpoints
are higher north of the boundary averaging 65-70 F, with gusty
northeast surface winds. As a result, both MUCAPE and effective
shear are a bit more favorable for marginal severe storms this
evening.

Widely spaced storms currently exist along this boundary, with the
OK portion of the activity aided by maximized heating. These storms
may persist for a couple hours before dwindling due to increasing
CIN.

Farther northeast toward MO and AR, this area will be in a zone of
increasing theta-e advection around 850 mb, coincident with
sufficient elevated CAPE to produce sporadic strong cores, possibly
with marginal hail. However, any severe threat is expected to be
short-lived tonight.

....Dakotas into MN...
While cool temperatures aloft exist beneath the weak northwest flow,
little surface convergence/lift is present to support new
development. Recent convective trends reflect this with earlier
storms in ND dissipating, and only isolated, weak convection into
northern SD. Given the loss of heating, mainly non-severe elevated
storms appear most likely from the Red River Valley into northern
MN, where modest advection of 850 mb theta-e will develop tonight.

..Jewell.. 08/17/2022