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SPC MD 1686

SPC MD 1686

[html]MD 1686 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
       
MD 1686 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1686
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

Areas affected...Parts of central and southern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 161903Z - 162100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms may intensify and be capable of
strong/damaging downburst winds this afternoon. A watch is not
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...The 12Z LZK observed sounding showed a deep moist
layer. Dewpoints in central/southern Arkansas have held in the low
to mid 70s F as temperatures have risen into the low to mid 90s F.
Visible satellite shows increasing thunderstorm development across
the area. With 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE, a few strong to severe storms
will be possible this afternoon. Storm organization will likely be
minimal, but some modest influence from a stronger belt of mid-level
winds in the mid-Mississippi Valley may allow 20-25 kts of effective
shear to promote isolated organized convection. The environment will
be supportive of strong to potentially damaging downburst winds as
storms collapse. With the strongest activity remaining sporadic and
isolated, no watch is anticipated this afternoon.

..Wendt/Thompson.. 08/16/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...

LAT...LON   34839427 35169397 35239317 34629208 34009160 33709148
            33489171 33389222 33809295 34089352 34839427


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Source: SPC MD 1686 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1686.html)