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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...Northern Great Basin into portions of the Northwest...
The dry thunder area has been expanded to match the latest hi-res
guidance. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop
ahead of the weak upper low moving onshore early Wednesday.
Significant precipitation beneath these storms appears unlikely
owing to dry low-level air. With around 250-500 J/kg of MUCAPE,
isolated lightning strikes are likely within receptive fuels. The
lightning risk may continue farther north into central OR overnight,
though this is less certain. Elsewhere, weak flow will persist, but
the increase in monsoon moisture and hot temperatures may support
some potential for hot and unstable conditions near ongoing large
fires. Please see the previous discussion for more info.  

...North Texas...
Along a stationary front draped across the Red River, pooled
moisture and subtle forcing will support isolated to scattered
thunderstorms Wed afternoon and evening. High-based storms and
occasional dry lightning strikes are likely given very warm
temperatures and receptive fuels beneath the upper ridge. Dry storm
coverage is expected to decrease through the day and into the
overnight hours as RH recoveries strengthen with cooler air behind
the front.

..Lyons.. 08/16/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022/

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will continue to amplify across the western CONUS as
mid-level troughing persists across the MS Valley to the Atlantic
Coastline tomorrow/Wednesday. While the large-scale surface wind
field beneath subtle forcing should remain sub-optimal for
supporting significant wildfire spread, a mid-level impulse may
traverse the northern Rockies late in the day. Modest surface low
development and the southward surging of a cold front will be
possible across portions of central and eastern Montana along with
locally Elevated conditions.

Of bigger concern will be the continued northwestward transport of
monsoonal moisture atop the southern Cascades, where the latest
guidance consensus shows greater confidence in thunderstorm coverage
by late afternoon/early evening. Isolated dry thunderstorm
highlights have been introduced when considering both storm coverage
and the presence of very dry fuels.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...