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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models continue to indicate that large-scale mid/upper
troughing within the mid-latitude westerlies, with perhaps at least
a couple of significant embedded short wave perturbations, will
continue inland of the Pacific coast through much of central and
eastern North America by early next week.  It appears increasingly
probable that one vigorous lead short wave trough will accelerate
northeastward out of the Southwest on Friday, and support strong
surface cyclogenesis from the lee of the Front Range through the
eastern Dakotas by 12Z Saturday.  The cyclone may then occlude and
slowly migrate north of the international border into the southern
Manitoba/Ontario border vicinity by early Sunday.

Coinciding with and preceding this development, a lower/mid
tropospheric high may beco*e increasingly prominent across much of
the Southeast.  It appears that this will include the westward
development of initially cool/dry surface ridging toward the
northwestern Gulf coast.  Various model output remains suggestive
that this may interfere with moisture return off the Gulf of Mexico,
and moistening within the warm sector of the deepening cyclone may
only beco*e seasonably modest.

However, lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates across the Great Plains
will initially be quite steep, and this probably will co*pensate,
contributing to a favorable environment for the development severe
thunderstorms in the presence of strong shear.  Highest severe
probabilities late Friday afternoon probably will beco*e focused
along the sharpening dryline across the higher plains, then perhaps
near the warm front across the mid Missouri Valley Friday evening,

Increasingly widespread convection Friday night probably will tend
to stabilize lapse rates.  This, coupled with the uncertain
influence of associated surface outflow, leaves severe weather
potential more uncertain for Saturday, though low-level wind fields
along/ahead of the eastward advancing front will be strong along a
corridor from eastern Kansas through eastern Minnesota near/shortly
after potential peak daytime heating.