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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...Northern CA and Southern OR...
No changes have been made to the current IsoDryT area. A low-end
risk for dry thunderstorms is expected mostly late D2/Tuesday as a
weak upper trough and jet approach the western edge of the ridge.
The highest confidence will remain across the northern Sierra in CA
where orographic ascent and dynamic lift will overlap with
sufficient moisture. While storm coverage appears borderline, deep
inverted V profiles on model soundings suggests a dry storm mode.
Given very dry fuel states, the risk for lightning ignitions will be
increased should any storms develop. Please see the previous
discussion for additional information.

..Lyons.. 08/15/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022/

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging should continue across the western CONUS as an
amplified northwesterly flow regime beco*es established across the
Plains states. Similar to Day 2, locally dry and breezy conditions
over dry fuel beds in terrain-favoring areas may occur by afternoon
peak heating from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies.
However, guidance consensus shows a modest plume of monsoonal
moisture meandering northwestward towards the southern Cascades
through the day, with some of the latest high-resolution data
depicting sparse thunderstorm development by early evening. While
the storms will be relatively slow moving, the latest guidance also
suggests that these storms should be mainly dry. Overall confidence
in thunderstorm development is relatively low given scant buoyancy.
However, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced
given how dry fuels are across far northeastern California and
immediate surrounding areas.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...