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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the
Carolinas. An isolated severe wind/hail threat may also develop
across parts of the central and northern Plains this afternoon and
evening.

...Central Carolinas this afternoon/evening...
Pockets of surface heating and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid
60s will contribute to some destabilization this afternoon across
the Piedmont, with thunderstorm development expected to focus along
a weak surface front/trough.  Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor
over this area, but the daytime heating will still boost MLCAPE to
near 1000 J/kg.  Embedded speed maxima rotating around the southwest
periphery of a midlevel trough over the Northeast will co*bine with
weak low-level winds (veering with height) to result in sufficient
deep-layer vertical shear for organized/supercell storms.  A few
damaging gusts appear to be the main threat with these storms later
this afternoon into this evening.

Scattered thunderstorms will along be possible farther west along
the wind shift across GA/AL, where vertical shear will be weaker. 
Primarily multicell storms will be capable of producing isolated
wind damage in this corridor later this afternoon.

...Northern Plains later this afternoon/evening...
A surface cold front has been reinforced by outflow with morning
convection across ND, and surface heating will be slowed some by
lingering clouds along the boundary into early afternoon.  Still,
pockets of stronger surface heating and steep midlevel lapse rates
noted in the 12z BIS sounding will support MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg
by late afternoon along the front/outflow.  Vertical shear will be
relatively weak, but afternoon/evening storms along the boundary
will be capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging
outflow gusts.

...Central Plains later this afternoon into early tonight...
In the wake of overnight convection, an MCV is moving eastward over
northeast NE.  The MCV is located well north of the surface warm
sector, and outflow from the overnight storms reinforced a boundary
from northeast CO to near the KS/NE border.  Clouds to the cool side
of the boundary and stronger surface heating to the south will tend
to reinforce the boundary through the afternoon, which should serve
as a focus for thunderstorm later this afternoon through late
evening.  Midlevel lapse rates are not particularly steep within the
monsoonal moisture plume emanating from the central Rockies, but
there will be steep low-level lapse rates in the stronger surface
heating/deeper mixing across northern KS.  A cluster or two of
storms on the cool side of the boundary could have modest
organization in association with the belt of 25-30 kt midlevel
westerlies atop surface easterly winds, and isolated high-based
storms may form this afternoon across northern KS.  Isolated
strong/damaging gusts may occur with the strongest storms late this
afternoon into early tonight.

...Rio Grande Valley of TX this afternoon...
A well-defined tropical low is moving slowly west-northwestward and
is located just west of Eagle Pass as of 16z.  Some supercell
structures have been noted this morning within convective banding to
the east of the center over South TX, coincident with a belt of
30-40 kt low-midlevel flow and modestly enhanced effective SRH
(100-150 m2/s2).  The overlap of the somewhat stronger wind profiles
and low-level hodograph curvature with northwest edge of the surface
temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s will
continue to support the potential for isolated supercells and a weak
tornado or two through the afternoon.

..Thompson/Wendt.. 08/15/2022