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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 AM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the
Carolinas. An isolated severe wind/hail threat may also develop
across parts of the central and northern Plains this afternoon and
evening.

...Carolinas/Southeast States...
The region will be influenced by a seasonally strong (35-40 kt at
500 mb) cyclonic belt of west-northwesterly winds aloft. Cloud
breaks and a southeastward-spreading weak shortwave trough/speed max
should influence the development of deeper convection into this
afternoon, initially over the southern Appalachians. Moderate
destabilization is expected along/south of a baroclinic zone across
the region. Around 1000-2000 J/kg of tall skinny MLCAPE should
develop given the presence of 7 C/km low/mid-level lapse rates atop
upper 60s/low 70s F surface dewpoints. Weak surface low development
may occur near the baroclinic zone beneath a belt of 40-50 kt of
500-300 mb flow, contributing to modest veering and strengthening of
tropospheric winds/modestly curved and elongated hodographs to
support multicell/transient supercell structures across the
Carolinas. Severe wind/hail are possible and a brief tornado could
potentially occur as well. 

Farther to the west, other isolated severe storms capable of wind
damage may occur late this afternoon/evening across parts of
Georgia/Alabama and possibly Mississippi. 

...Central Plains...
A convectively reinforced mid-level perturbation/MCV is noted early
this morning along the Nebraska/South Dakota border, with a loosely
organized MCS centered across central/eastern Nebraska and southeast
South Dakota/western Iowa. Destabilization will be maximized later
today to the south/southwest of this early day convection as
differential heating/outflow augments a synoptic boundary across the
region.

There is at least some potential that a few supercells/sustained
multicells could develop across east-central/southeast Nebraska late
this afternoon and early evening to the northeast of the surface low
and in the vicinity of the warm front. This is where deep-layer
(35-40 kt effective) and low-level shear will be maximized in a
corridor coincident with low-level moisture and buoyancy. Isolated
large hail and/or locally damaging winds could occur provided storm
development within this corridor late this afternoon and evening.

Farther west, other higher-based storms are expected to develop
across eastern portions of Colorado into northwest Kansas and
western/central Nebraska. Ample heating and steep low-level lapse
rates coincident with modest-strength westerlies will support the
potential for some stronger/severe-caliber wind gusts late this
afternoon through early/mid-evening.

...Northern Plains...
Initially, a few strong or locally severe storms could occur early
today near the international border vicinity of northeast North
Dakota/far northwest Minnesota in relation to an ongoing MCS across
southern Manitoba. Otherwise, additional storm development is
expected later today farther to the west/southwest across North
Dakota and northern/western South Dakota. Tropospheric flow and
associated deep-layer shear are expected to remain modest at best.
However, steep low and mid-level lapse rates will contribute to
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Outflow dominant multicellular storms will be
the prevalent convective mode, with a few bouts of severe hail
possible given the steeper mid-level lapse rates. A severe gust or
two may also acco*pany merging storms/cold pools.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 08/15/2022