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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly
wind damage may occur Wednesday across portions of the Southeast.

...Southeast...
An upper trough/low should remain centered over the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast on Wednesday. At the surface, a front is forecast to move
slowly southward across much of the Southeast through the period.
This boundary will likely provide a focus for thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon and evening, some of which could be strong to
severe.

Mid-level west-northwesterly winds are forecast to remain fairly
modest across the Southeast, as this region will be on the southern
periphery of the upper trough/low enco*passing much of the eastern
CONUS. Even so, a narrow zone of 20-30 kt deep-layer shear should
encourage some updraft organization. Thunderstorms should develop
along/near the front as it shifts slowly southward through the day.
Moderate to locally strong instability is generally expected to
develop south of the front, as robust diurnal heating of a
seasonably moist low-level airmass occurs. Multiple multicell
clusters may ultimately consolidate and spread southward through
early Wednesday evening. Owing to the steepened low-level lapse
rates and a mainly linear mode forecast, this activity may pose an
isolated threat for damaging downdraft winds.

..Gleason.. 08/15/2022