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Mesoscale Discussion 1679
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0518 PM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022

Areas affected...portions of eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska
and far southwestern South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 142218Z - 150015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few stronger storms may pose a brief large hail/severe
gust threat through the remainder of the afternoon. A WW issuance is
not expected given the isolated nature of the severe threat.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and MRMS mosaic radar imagery depict
an uptick in convective intensity, with several storms exhibiting 50
dBZ echoes breaching 40 kft and MESH cores exceeding 1.5 inches.
Though tropospheric flow fields and resultant deep-layer shear are
relatively weak, both pulse cellular and loosely organized multicell
clusters will likely experience brief bouts in intensity given the
presence of steep low-level lapse rates and modest mid-level lapse
rates (per 20Z RAP forecast soundings). Brief instances of large
hail and perhaps a couple severe gusts are the main threats with the
strongest of storms. However, mediocre deep-layer shear should limit
a more robust severe threat from materializing, and a WW issuance is
not expected.

..Squitieri.. 08/14/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41010625 42940542 43810441 44040378 43900253 43510139
            42840100 42060106 41410163 40790241 40580292 40470375
            40500467 41010625