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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI...AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts
of northeastern Oklahoma, southeastern Kansas, southwestern
Missouri, and northwestern Arkansas.

...Southern/Central Plains into the Ozarks...
Large-scale upper ridging is forecast to remain prominent over much
of the western/central CONUS on Tuesday, with an upper trough/low
moving little over the eastern states. In between these two
features, a low-amplitude shortwave trough should move southeastward
through the day from parts of the central Plains into the Ozarks.
Modestly enhanced mid-level northwesterly winds attendant to the
shortwave trough should overspread these regions by Tuesday
afternoon. At the surface, an area of low pressure should be in
place over OK. A cold front should move southward across the central
Plains through Tuesday evening, while a warm front sharpens east of
the low across the Ozarks. A dryline/surface trough should extend
southward from the low across the southern Plains.

A narrow corridor of moderate instability should develop from
southeastern KS/northeastern OK into the Ozarks Tuesday afternoon
along and south of the warm front, where most guidance suggests
upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints should be in place. Modest
convergence may be maximized to the northeast of the surface low by
peak afternoon heating in the vicinity of a triple point. It appears
that enough low-level convergence and modest large-scale ascent
associated with the shortwave trough may exist to support robust
surface-based thunderstorms by late Tuesday afternoon. If this
activity forms, it would pose an isolated severe threat given
moderate instability and adequate deep-layer shear forecast. A small
Marginal Risk has been included to account for this possibility,
with the southeastward extent of appreciable severe risk into AR
Tuesday evening/night remaining rather uncertain.

..Gleason.. 08/14/2022