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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered convection, with isolated strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms, will spread across portions of the central High
Plains region on Sunday.

...Central High Plains Region...

Dominant upper anticyclone is currently centered over the TX
Panhandle and this feature is expected to move little through the
day1 period. As a result, any weak disturbances will be directed
north across the Great Basin toward WY/MT where these features will
then turn southeast and advance toward the lower OH Valley. One such
feature is currently located over eastern NV/western UT. Substantial
convection developed ahead of this feature across the Great Basin
Saturday afternoon/evening. Scattered convection will likely evolve
downstream across WY/northern CO later today, especially as boundary
layer warming aids destabilization. Forecast soundings for
CPR/LAR/GXY all exhibit minimal inhibition by 21z and scattered
thunderstorms should readily develop in response to this approaching
short wave. Weak deep-layer flow/shear suggest updrafts will
struggle to organize; however, sufficiently steep lapse rates and
adequate instability favor gusty winds and perhaps marginally severe
hail with the strongest cores. Latest model guidance suggests a
notable increase to the LLJ across western KS into western NE during
the evening which should encourage eastward propagation after
sunset.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/14/2022