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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...AND PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Monday across
parts of Georgia into the Carolinas and southern Virginia, and for
portions of the central Plains. Occasional damaging winds and hail
should be the main threats.

...Georgia into the Carolinas and Southern Virginia...
An upper trough centered over much of the eastern CONUS and Canada
should move little on Monday. Around 30-40 kt of mid-level
northwesterly flow should be present on the southern periphery of
the upper trough, and to the east of upper ridging over the Plains.
A weak surface low initially over KY should develop towards the
Carolinas through the day, with a trailing cold front slowly moving
east-southeastward across the TN Valley into the central
Appalachians and Southeast through the period.

A seasonably moist low-level airmass should be in place ahead of the
cold front. Diurnal heating of this airmass should encourage the
development of around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by Monday afternoon
from portions of the Deep South into the western/central Carolinas.
Current expectations are for thunderstorms to gradually increase in
coverage and intensity through the afternoon and early evening along
and ahead of the front. 25-40 kt of effective bulk shear is forecast
across these areas, decreasing with southwestward extent into GA.

Convection should organize into multiple small bowing clusters with
time, with a couple supercells also possible. With steepened
low-level lapse rates where robust diurnal heating occurs, isolated
strong to damaging winds should be the main threat as this activity
spreads east-southeastward through early Monday evening. Occasional
hail may also occur with any marginal supercells. With instability
forecast to decrease towards the coast, these thunderstorms should
gradually weaken with eastward/southward extent Monday evening.

...Central Plains...
An upper ridge should continue to dominate much of the western and
central CONUS on Monday. Most guidance shows a low-amplitude
mid-level perturbation rounding the apex of the ridge and spreading
east-southeastward across parts of the central Plains through the
period. Modestly enhanced mid-level west-northwesterly winds should
acco*pany this feature. A surface low should consolidate over KS and
vicinity through the day while deepening slightly, with a narrow
corridor of rich low-level moisture extending from parts of NE into
eastern KS and MO. A cold front is forecast to make some southward
progress across the central High Plains through Monday evening.

It appears that weak ascent associated with the low-amplitude
shortwave trough may be sufficient to aid robust thunderstorm
development across parts of NE by late Monday afternoon. This
activity should generally occur along/ahead of the cold front.
Various NAM forecast soundings across this region show a favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic environment for multicells and marginal
supercells. The main uncertainty continues to be overall
thunderstorm coverage in this narrow zone. Have included low severe
probabilities for both hail and wind, with the potential for a
supercell or small cluster to track generally southeastward across
NE towards the KS border through early Monday evening. Confidence in
convection persisting Monday night was not high enough to extend the
Marginal Risk farther south/east into north-central KS at this time.

Initially high-based convection should also develop over the higher
terrain in northern/central CO, before spreading eastward into the
central High Plains by late Monday afternoon. Mid-level winds should
remain fairly weak across this area, which is forecast to be on the
southern periphery of the shortwave trough. Still, any of this
activity that occurs along/near the southward-moving cold front may
be capable of producing strong to locally severe wind gusts, as
low-level lapse rates are forecast to steepen through the day due to
diurnal heating and the boundary layer beco*ing well mixed. The best
convective signal in guidance for a small cluster occurring is
across parts of northeastern into east-central CO. Accordingly, low
severe wind probabilities have been included to address this
potential.

..Gleason.. 08/14/2022