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Mesoscale Discussion 0522
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2022

Areas affected...Southern Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 182008Z - 182215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing over the next few hours will pose
a hail and damaging wind risk. However, this threat is expected to
be relatively short lived and isolated. A watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES-16 visible imagery shows an increasing
number of convective towers developing along sea-breeze boundaries
across the southern FL peninsula with a developing thunderstorm
noted along the leading edge of a cold front further north to the
east of the Cape Canaveral coast. Temperatures have risen into the
upper 80s and low 90s amid ample daytime heating, which is
supporting upwards of around 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE based on recent
RAP mesosanalysis and a modified 18 UTC MFL RAOB. Dry air in the 3-5
km layer and weak flow aloft (noted in the 18 UTC RAOB, recent ACARS
soundings, and VWP observations) may limit the propensity and
severity of thunderstorms in the near term. However, stronger
forcing for ascent (in the form of the approaching cold front, which
is identifiable in low-level water vapor imagery and surface obs)
will support an increase in thunderstorm coverage by late afternoon.

Stronger mid and upper-level winds associated with the synoptic wave
to the north will overspread the region in tandem with the front and
may support some storm organization. Additionally, column theta-e
deficits between 20-30 K co*bined with steep low-level lapse rates
will support a wet microburst potential. As such, storms will pose a
hail/wind threat through the late afternoon. However, given the
marginal deep-layer shear and potential for undercutting outflows,
confidence in storm longevity is low and precludes the need for a
watch.

..Moore/Mosier.. 04/18/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...

LAT...LON   25108084 25408120 25908154 26398117 27238073 27668084
            28238089 28488092 28608071 28598047 27758017 27257988
            26817982 25807996 25258019 25108084