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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
northern High Plains and Midwest late this afternoon and evening.

...Northern High Plains including Montana/North Dakota...
Near the crest of the prevalent upper ridge, an ejecting shortwave
trough emerging from the Canadian Rockies should at least glancingly
influence the region later today, while a monsoon-related subtle
disturbance or two may also be factors.

Strong boundary-layer heating across Montana into western North
Dakota should effectively remove inhibition by around 21-22z.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the lee trough/weak front
where low-level convergence and low-level moisture/buoyancy should
be maximized near/after peak heating. Wind profiles could support a
few slow-moving supercells particularly with any development across
extreme eastern Montana and far western North Dakota. If storms
develop, large hail and damaging winds would be a concern.

Otherwise, scattered high-based convection will once again develop
across the mountains/higher elevations of eastern Idaho into
southwest/central Montana. This activity should spread northeastward
with an attendant threat for strong/locally severe winds through
early/mid evening.

...Midwest late this afternoon/early evening...
A weak/subtle mid-level perturbation or two amidst moderately strong
northwesterlies aloft will influence the potential for strong/severe
thunderstorm development later today. This will particularly be the
case near a surface low/triple point vicinity and
southeastward-moving cold front across far eastern Iowa and southern
Wisconsin/northern Illinois. A semi-narrow corridor of higher
moisture content and greater heating/surface-based destabilization
should materialize into mid/late-afternoon within the aforementioned
corridor. At least isolated thunderstorms may develop shortly after
peak heating or by around sunset. Forecast soundings suggest ample
vertical shear/buoyancy for slow-moving supercells if/where storms
develop. A few instances of severe wind and hail will be possible
and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out near the surface low/warm
front vicinity.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 08/13/2022