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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Little change to the upper pattern should occur through at least the
middle of next week, with a large-scale upper ridge remaining over
much of the western/central CONUS, and an upper trough over the
eastern states. Organized severe thunderstorm potential also appears
relatively low, as modest mid-level winds should generally limit
deep-layer shear. From Day 4/Tuesday through Day 6/Thursday, the
best potential for occasionally strong convection should focus along
and south of a front that is forecast to slowly sag southward across
parts of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and Southeast.
Modest mid-level northwesterly winds may exist between the upper
ridge and trough across portions of these regions. Still, deep-layer
shear appears too weak to support more than an isolated threat for
marginally severe thunderstorms each afternoon.

The potential for the upper ridge to be suppressed by a weak
mid-level perturbation from Day 7/Friday into next weekend remains
unclear. If this evolution occurs and an upper trough can develop
across parts of the north-central states towards the Great Lakes
vicinity, then some severe risk may ultimately develop across parts
of the central/eastern CONUS in this time frame. However, organized
severe thunderstorm chances still appear rather low, as a fair
amount of uncertainty remains regarding the possible upper ridge
breakdown.