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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2022

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AROUND MIDDAY
CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms are likely during the day on Tuesday from far
eastern New Mexico into west Texas, and a few could produce
marginally severe hail.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A deep, negatively tilted upper trough will move across the Mid
Atlantic and Northeast, with temporarily upper ridging across the
Plains and Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude upper trough will
traverse the western CONUS, reaching 105 W by 12Z Wednesday.

At the surface, high pressure will move from AR eastward to VA/NC as
low pressure deepens over the northern High Plains. Southerly
surface winds will increase late in the day and overnight over the
Plains in response to the low, with 50s F dewpoints spreading north
across west TX, perhaps reaching 60 F by Wednesday morning.

Positive theta-e advection at 850 mb will be underway Tuesday
morning over the southern High Plains, and will persist and shift
east across OK overnight as winds increase to 50-60 kt. This regime
should result in elevated thunderstorms from Tuesday morning into
the early afternoon from far eastern NM into west TX. Given
sufficiently steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer effective
shear, some of these storms could produce marginally severe hail.
The relatively cool boundary layer and capping for surface-based
parcels suggest minimal wind risk.

..Jewell.. 04/18/2022