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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2022

Valid 181700Z - 191200Z

The main change made to this forecast was to trim the eastward
extent of the Elevated across western Iowa to account for recent
snowfall. Otherwise, the widespread 20+ mph sustained northwesterly
surface winds depicted by observations should continue into the
afternoon, when RH is expected to dip into the 20-35 percent range.
The previous forecast remains on track across the Desert Southwest,
which is under sunny skies and should remain so through the day,
promoting ample boundary-layer mixing to support widespread,
high-end Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions. 15-20
mph sustained southerly winds (locally higher in terrain-favoring
locations) will coincide with 10-20 percent RH for at least a few
hours around afternoon peak heating.

..Squitieri.. 04/18/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2022/

...Synopsis...
A large-scale ridge will be situated over the western CONUS, while a
midlevel trough moves eastward across the Upper MS Valley and Great
Lakes region. At the surface, high pressure will enco*pass most of
the Great Plains, with a tight surface pressure gradient along its
eastern and western peripheries.

...Southwest into the south-central Rockies and High Plains...
Over the Southwest, diurnal heating/mixing will yield 5-15 percent
RH by the afternoon. At the same time, enhanced midlevel flow will
mix down to the surface, resulting in 15-20 mph sustained westerly
surface winds. For the south-central Rockies and adjacent High
Plains, downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will allow for
15-20 percent RH by peak heating. Here, sustained southerly surface
winds of 15-20 mph will develop in response to the tightening
surface pressure gradient. These meteorological conditions co*bined
with modestly receptive fuels will support elevated to spotty
critical conditions. 

...Middle MO Valley...
Deep/strong northwesterly flow on the backside of the
eastward-advancing midlevel trough will overspread the MO Valley --
where a tight surface pressure gradient will be in place. This will
result in 15-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 25-30
percent RH. While the marginal RH reductions cast uncertainty on the
overall fire-weather risk, the strong/gusty winds atop very dry
fuels (ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile) should generally
co*pensate for this.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...