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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN INTO
EASTERN MONTANA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana
into northwest North Dakota on late Saturday afternoon through the
evening.

...Discussion...
A mid-level trough initially over southern British Columbia and WA
will move northeast through the southern Canadian Rockies on
Saturday.  A mid-level anticyclone will remain centered over the
central High Plains with a ridge extending northward into the
southern Prairie Provinces.  A large-scale mid-level trough will
enco*pass much of the East Coast.  In the low levels, a weak area of
low pressure over the middle MS Valley will aid in focusing isolated
to scattered showers/thunderstorms over parts of the southwest Great
Lakes.  Elevated general thunderstorms are expected with this
activity.  A residual frontal zone will extend westward into the
central Great Plains and arc northward into the northern Great
Plains.  Weak low-level warm-air advection is forecast in the
vicinity of the boundary near the MT/ND/Saskatchewan border.  Ample
mid- to high-level flow will result in strong deep-layer shear
supporting organized storm structures.  The overall weak forcing for
ascent beneath the mid-level ridge will likely limit storm coverage,
but a small storm cluster could yield a hail/wind risk.  Farther
west, isolated diurnally driven storms are probable over southern MT
during the late afternoon.  Some of this activity may gradually
shift east into east-central MT during the evening.  A steep lapse
rate environment will conditionally yield a risk for severe gusts
with the stronger cores.

..Smith.. 08/12/2022