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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2022

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models continue to indicate that a major mid/upper
trough evolving within the westerlies over the eastern mid-latitude
Pacific will develop inland of the Pacific coast through much of the
interior of North America late this week through early next week. 
Latest model runs appear even more progressive than those of 24
hours ago, but the ECMWF and ECENS continue to lag the GFS/GEFS and
embedded shorter wavelength developments remain quite varied. 
Boundary-layer moisture return off the Gulf of Mexico may never
beco*e particularly broad and deep, but steep lower/mid tropospheric
lapse rates could co*pensate across the Great Plains into the
Mississippi Valley.

There does appear to be at least a growing consensus that one
emerging short wave impulse will contribute to strong surface
cyclogenesis from the lee of the Front Range northeastward toward
the eastern Dakotas Friday through Friday night.  It appears that
this may be acco*panied by intensifying southwesterly mid/upper
flow, and the evolution of large clockwise-curved low-level
hodographs within a destabilizing warm sector.  This could support a
clustering of supercell development along a warm frontal zone
near/north of the mid Missouri Valley, as well as southward along a
sharpening dryline through the central Great Plains by early Friday
evening.

Subsequent developments remain more unclear, but the evolution of an
upscale growing and organizing convective system might not be out of
the question northeast of the mid Missouri Valley toward the Upper
Midwest later Friday night.  The impacts of this activity and
associated outflow on renewed convective development Saturday only
adds to the uncertainties concerning further severe weather
potential next weekend.