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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND INLAND PACIFIC NORTHWEST....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the
Mid-Atlantic region and inland Pacific Northwest.

...Mid Atlantic...
Warm and humid surface conditions are present today over the Mid
Atlantic region, with strong daytime heating resulting in afternoon
MLCAPE of 2500 J/kg.  A consensus of 12z model guidance suggests
that scattered thunderstorms will form by early-afternoon over the
mountains of eastern WV and western VA.  This activity will spread
slowly eastward into the Chesapeake Bay region.  Forecast soundings
and recent ACARS data from the DC/Baltimore area show very weak
winds aloft and poor mid-level lapse rates.  Given the lack of large
scale forcing mechanisms, convection that forms in this area should
be weakly organized.  Nevertheless, isolated tree damage may briefly
occur with the strongest cells.

...WA/OR...
An upper low is tracking northward off the OR/WA coast today, with
relatively strong southerly deep-layer flow across the interior
Pacific Northwest.  Mostly clear skies and dewpoints in the 50s will
result in a corridor of sufficient CAPE to pose a conditional threat
of strong/severe storms this afternoon and evening across the MRGL
risk area.  Model guidance suggests that the coverage of storms will
be quite limited.  Nevertheless, any storm that can form/persist
will pose a risk of gusty winds and hail.

..Hart/Weinman.. 08/10/2022