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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Tue Aug 09 2022

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL OREGON AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated supercell or two posing a risk for severe wind and hail
is possible late this afternoon near the eastern slopes of the
Oregon Cascades.  A few strong storms may still impact parts of the
Mid Atlantic into southern New England, with potential to produce
locally damaging wind gusts into early evening.

...20Z Update...
Some adjustments to categorical and probabilistic lines have been
made, mainly to account for the slow progression of synoptic and
sub-synoptic features.

...Oregon...
It still appears that the environment is beco*ing at least
conditionally supportive of supercell development in a narrow
corridor to the east of the Oregon Cascades, as a lower/mid
tropospheric cyclone offshore of the northern California coast
slowly migrates northward.  

Based on latest NAM and Rapid Refresh soundings, low-level
moistening associated with preceding convective precipitation,
coupled with ongoing insolation, might contribute to mixed-layer
CAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, in a relatively confined area near and
south through west of the Redmond/Bend vicinities within the next
few hours, as deep-layer shear strengthens.  Given the isolated
nature of the threat, probably limited to one or perhaps two
sustained supercells, severe weather probabilities are being
maintained at 5 percent.  However, these could pose a risk to
produce large hail and potentially damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 08/09/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 AM CDT Tue Aug 09 2022/

...Northeast States...
A surface cold front is analyzed this morning from central New
England into central PA.  This front will sag southeastward today
into a hot/moist low-level environment with temperatures in the 90s
and dewpoints in the 70s.  Forecast soundings show weak mid-level
lapse rates and warm temperatures aloft, which should be negative
factors for convective coverage and intensity.  Nevertheless, at
least isolated thunderstorms are expected to form on the front later
today, with the strongest cells posing a risk of locally damaging
wind gusts.  

...Central OR...
A large upper low is present off the coast of northern CA today,
with rather strong southerly deep-layer flow extending northward
across much of western and central OR.  12z model guidance continues
to show multiple waves of convection affecting the MRGL risk area
through this evening, where sufficient CAPE and deep-layer shear
will be present for a few organized storms.  The main threat appears
to be locally damaging wind gusts in pockets of stronger heating,
but an isolated supercell or two cannot be ruled out, with an
associated risk of gusty winds or hail.