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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Tue Aug 09 2022

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe wind gusts will be
possible today from the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England.
Other storms with potential for strong wind gusts will be possible
in parts of the Interior Pacific Northwest.

... Synopsis ...

An expansive mid-level anticyclone, centered over the central
Rockies, continues to be the dominant synoptic-scale feature for the
contiguous United States. This mid-level anticyclone will build
northward into southwest Canada today in response to a mid-level
cyclone moving northward along the California and Oregon coasts.
Additionally, a weak short-wave trough will move across northern New
England and out over the Atlantic.

At the surface, a weak cold front stretching from the Northeast into
the southern High Plains will continue to slowly move
south-southeast today. This cold front will serve as the focus of
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon along much of its extent.

... Mid-Atlantic to Southern New England ...

As the mid-level trough departs northern New England, a surface cold
front will push southward toward the coast. Ahead of this front,
surface dewpoints in the upper 60s F and low 70s F will contribute
to a narrow corridor of instability, with most-unstable CAPE around
1000-1500 J/kg by late morning and early afternoon. Thunderstorms
will develop along and ahead of the surface front by late morning.
Deep-layer shear should remain too weak for synoptically driven
thunderstorm organization, but steep low-level lapse rates and
precipitable water around two inches will support a marginal
wind-damage threat with the strongest multicell clusters. The threat
should end later this evening as the surface front moves through.

... Interior Pacific Northwest ...

As the mid-upper low moves northward along the California and Oregon
coats, deep-tropospheric southerly flow will be maintained across
northern California and central Oregon. This will establish and
maintain a corridor of maximized tropospheric moisture and
corresponding instability from western Nevada into central Oregon.
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will be possible across this area,
beginning as early as midday. Given the strength of the mid-level
flow and the potential for steep low-level-lapse rates -- nearly dry
adiabatic -- a few marginally severe downdrafts will be possible
into the evening.

..Marsh/Edwards.. 08/09/2022