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Mesoscale Discussion 0519
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0540 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

Areas affected...Parts of LA and southern MS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 135...137...

Valid 172240Z - 180015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 135, 137
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues across WWs 135 and
137. Monitoring areas farther south in southern LA for new watch
issuance later this evening.

DISCUSSION...A mix of discrete supercells and organized multi-cell
clusters are advancing east-southeastward across northern LA and
southern MS, where there have been multiple reports of large to very
large hail. Within the inflow region of this convection, dewpoints
in the upper 60s to lower 70s and steep low-level lapse rates are
supporting 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. In addition, the latest
observations show surface pressure falls over southern MS, resulting
in backed surface winds and associated increases in low-level SRH
(around 200 m^2/s^2 0-1km SRH per DGX VWP). This enhanced low-level
SRH, co*bined with favorable deep-layer shear (effective bulk shear
near 45-55 knots) will continue to support supercells with a risk of
large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two. 

Eventually, convection should grow upscale and continue spreading
southward into southern LA, where a new watch may eventually be
needed.

..Weinman.. 04/17/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   29948934 29309038 29999203 30829267 32089265 32629203
            32769106 32729018 32458934 31938894 31288889 29948934