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Mesoscale Discussion 0517
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

Areas affected...Parts of the FL Panhandle and southern GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 172203Z - 180000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally strong wind gusts will be
possible during the next couple hours across portions of the FL
Panhandle and southern GA. Watch issuance is not expected at this
time.

DISCUSSION...Latest mosaic radar imagery shows a few strong updrafts
embedded in a larger area of stratiform rain over the FL Panhandle
into far southern GA. Steep low-level lapse rates and modest
boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the middle 60s) are
contributing to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE where VWPs show 35-45 knots 0-6km
bulk shear. While low-level flow remains weak and large-scale ascent
is minimal, steep midlevel lapse rates co*bined with the favorable
mid/upper-level flow will continue to support isolated large hail
with the stronger/persistent cores. Locally strong wind gusts will
also be possible, mainly aided by precipitation loading and
localized upscale growth. Watch issuance is not expected at this
time.

..Weinman/Grams.. 04/17/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   30088581 30788555 31448481 31508410 31618252 31288122
            30558127 29778169 29378336 29918404 29438521 30088581