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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Tue Aug 09 2022

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND IN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe wind gusts will be
possible today from the Mid Atlantic into southern New England.
Other storms with potential for strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible in parts of the Pacific Northwest.

...Mid Atlantic to Southern New England...
A shortwave trough will move eastward across the Lower Great Lakes
region today. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southeastward across the central and northern Appalachians. Ahead of
the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will
contribute a narrow corridor of moderate instability by afternoon.
Thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the front as surface
temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases. Although
deep-layer shear will be relatively weak, 0-3 km lapse rates are
forecast to reach 7.5 C/km along much of the instability axis. This
could be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat with the strongest
of multicells during the mid afternoon.

...Pacific Northwest...
An upper-level low will move toward the West Coast today. Ahead of
the system, mid-level flow will be southerly from northern
California into central Oregon. This will help set up a corridor of
maximized low-level moisture and instability by midday from western
Nevada into southern and central Oregon. Thunderstorms are forecast
to develop along and near the instability axis this afternoon, where
MLCAPE could peak near 1000 J/kg. In addition to the instability,
NAM forecast soundings in southern and central Oregon have
inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, with 0-3 km lapse rates in the
9.5 to 10 C/km range. This could be sufficient for a few marginally
severe downdrafts during the mid to late afternoon.

..Broyles/Squitieri.. 08/09/2022