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Mesoscale Discussion 0516
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0432 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

Areas affected...portions of east TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 172132Z - 172300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm or two could produce large hail over
the next few hours across parts of east TX. The overall threat is
expected to remain conditional and isolated in time/space,
precluding watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Isolated convection has developed this afternoon near
the I-45 corridor in Leon County TX. This activity is just ahead of
a surface boundary draped across central into northeast TX.
Temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s ahead of of these isolated
cells, with dewpoints near 70 F. As a result, MLCAPE has increased
to around 2000-2500 J/kg amid modest midlevel lapse rates. A broad
agitated cumulus field is noted in visible satellite imagery as of
2115z, and at least one or two sustained storms could emerge from
this area. However, current radar trends indicate convection is
weakening and struggling to maintain intensity.

Nevertheless, strong vertical shear resides across the region, with
effective shear magnitudes near 40-45 kt. RAP and HRRR forecast
soundings indicate little inhibition while hodographs are straight
and elongated. Given strong instability and favorable shear profiles
that would typically support rotating updrafts capable of large
hail, a conditional threat for a severe storm or two will exist over
the next few hours. Large-scale ascent will remain weak across the
region, and convergence along the surface boundary is not as
apparent as further southwest where supercells have produced
significant hail this afternoon. Nevertheless, the environmental
parameter space is sufficient for an organized supercell capable of
large hail, should a cell beco*e sustained. Given the the
conditional and isolated nature of the threat, a watch is not
expected at this time.

..Leitman/Grams.. 04/17/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   30499515 30679452 30889419 31129388 31489383 31839390
            32009408 31989436 31729494 31289608 31159636 30899680
            30849686 30649697 30499698 30359693 30209672 30249624
            30399562 30499515