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Mesoscale Discussion 0515
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

Areas affected...South-central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 136...

Valid 172033Z - 172230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 136
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds/hail continues for WW 136 as
thunderstorms approach the I-35 corridor in south-central Texas.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms that have initiated along a cold front in
south-central Texas have displayed organized mesocyclones at times,
but have struggled to maintain intensity - likely due to lingering
inhibition at around 850 mb that is noted in recent RAP mesoanalysis
and forecast soundings. Despite this, the stratus that was in place
ahead of these storms has begun to rapidly clear out as daytime
heating drives deeper boundary-layer mixing. Latest forecasts
suggest that any lingering capping will be overco*e via mixing as
temperatures approach the mid to upper 80s, which should be
achievable in the next 1-2 hours. With surface dewpoints remaining
in the upper 60s to low 70s, MLCAPE has increase to 2000-2500 J/kg,
and regional VWPs continue to show strong flow above 5 km that is
supporting nearly straight, elongated hodographs. As such, any storm
that can persist until 21-23 UTC will likely see intensification and
an increasing severe hail/wind threat. While exact timing and storm
coverage remains uncertain, this intensification could occur as
storms approach the higher population centers along the I-35
corridor.

..Moore.. 04/17/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30509905 30739837 30699759 30289721 30009713 29299740
            29079785 29039880 29099948 29379999 30069989 30509905