SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
[html]SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CDT Mon Aug 08 2022
Valid 081700Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON...
The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments
needed. Isolated showers/thunderstorms are already ongoing this
morning, but will beco*e more numerous by mid/late afternoon. An
increase in mid-level moisture was sampled in regional 12 UTC
soundings with dry boundary-layer conditions noted along/east of the
Cascades. These observed trends and latest ensemble guidance both
support the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion below for
additional details.
..Moore.. 08/08/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Mon Aug 08 2022/
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will dominate the Interior West as an upper low
meanders off of the West Coast today. Monsoonal moisture will pivot
northwestward around the periphery of the upper ridge across the
Desert Southwest into the Pacific Northwest, where scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop by afternoon. Across far
southern Washington into central Oregon and extreme northern
California/northwestern Nevada, many of the thunderstorms are
expected to be high-based. Forecast soundings in this area by
afternoon peak heating suggest that a very dry boundary layer will
extend up to 500 mb amid precipitable water values around 0.75
inches. As such, a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is expected to
overspread modestly to highly receptive fuels, warranting isolated
dry thunderstorm highlights. Scattered dry thunderstorm highlights
were also maintained across central/southern Oregon, where the
latest high-resolution guidance consensus continues to depict the
greatest concentration of thunderstorms. Lastly, high-resolution
ensemble guidance shows relatively high potential for erratic and
gusty winds (perhaps 30-45 kts) acco*panying the stronger
thunderstorms across the southern Cascades, which may exacerbate any
new or pre-existing fire starts.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Source: SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html)