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Mesoscale Discussion 0513
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

Areas affected...North-central Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 171904Z - 172100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging winds and near-severe hail possible over
the next couple of hours as thunderstorms continue to develop along
sea-breeze boundaries in north-central Florida.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms developing along sea-breeze boundaries
across north-central Florida have a history of producing sub-severe
wind and hail over the past hour, with a notable 54 mph wind gust
observed near Jacksonville, FL. Latest RAP analysis and forecast
soundings hint that deep-layer flow is fairly weak, and this is
confirmed by regional VWP observations. As such, the potential for
sustained organized convection appears very minimal. However, these
storms are developing in an environment with nearly 2000 J/kg
SBCAPE, which may support a brief window for near-severe hail with
initial updraft pulses. Additionally, lapse rates in the lowest 2-3
km are near 8 C/km per latest forecast soundings and analyses, and a
dry layer near 500 mb noted in this morning's JAX sounding is
supporting column theta-e deficits between 20-30 K. This
thermodynamic profile is supportive of wet microbursts capable of
damaging winds, and should persist for the next couple of hours
until the air mass is overturned.

..Moore/Hart.. 04/17/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   29148252 29418275 29758307 30328322 30708290 30778245
            30728181 30558155 29988134 29488127 29268146 29068165
            29038194 29028228 29148252