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Mesoscale Discussion 0737
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025

Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 080622Z - 080745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for isolated hail and damaging wind may persist
overnight.

DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster with a history of producing
isolated hail and wind damage has persisted across AR late tonight,
with evolution into primarily a single supercell along a propagating
outflow. This cluster appears to be located in the vicinity of a
weak baroclinic zone, with slightly warmer temperatures and greater
instability noted downstream into east-central AR. Deep-layer
flow/shear is sufficient for storm organization, downstream of a
midlevel cyclone centered over southeast KS. 

Ascent attendant to the midlevel cyclone and modestly favorable
downstream instability could support maintenance of the ongoing
small cluster through part of the overnight, with a continued threat
of localized hail and damaging gusts.

..Dean/Guyer.. 05/08/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   34969199 35139209 35309208 35539188 35739166 35719067
            35659016 35349020 35069032 34889052 34899086 34869107
            34879140 34889162 34969199 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN